Weekly Market WATCh

  • Market WATCh Weekly 20 May 2022

    May 20, 2022

    At home, RBA Board minutes showed a 40bps cash rate hike was considered at the May meeting. Employment rose to another record high in April, while the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since the mid-1970s. Wage growth remained sluggish in Q1. The ANZ consumer sentiment index declined last week, as inflation expectations rebounded. Abroad, US industrial production and retail sales saw further solid increases in April. The Chinese activity data was weaker than expected, with retail sales and industrial production falling the most since early 2020.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 13 May 2022

    May 13, 2022

    In Australia, retail sales volumes rose to a fresh record high, despite accelerating inflation. The NAB business conditions index improved further in April, but business confidence eased a little. The Westpac consumer sentiment index dropped to the lowest level since May 2020. Offshore, US annual CPI and PPI inflation eased slightly in April but remained elevated. The Chinese trade balance widened more than expected in April, yet both import and export growth were weak. Chinese iron ore imports declined 12.7% YoY. Chinese PPI inflation fell to the lowest level in a year, while core CPI inflation fell to a 10-month low as lockdowns hit consumer demand.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 8 April 2022

    April 8, 2022

    In Australia, the RBA left the cash rate target unchanged this week but tweaked its forward guidance, raising the risk of a near-term rate hike. In March, the Melbourne Institute annual inflation gauge rose to the highest levels since 2008 and ANZ job ads continued to rise. Payroll jobs declined in the month to 12 March. The trade surplus narrowed in February on higher imports. Offshore, the ISM PMIs pointed to solid activity growth in the US, with price pressures re-intensifying. The Caixin PMI indicated the fastest contraction in the Chinese services sector since February 2020.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 29 April 2022

    April 29, 2022

    Domestically, annual headline CPI inflation rose to the highest level in two decades in Q1, while trimmed mean inflation surged above the RBA target. The terms of trade appears to have surged to a new record high in Q1. ANZ consumer confidence ebbed last week, despite another decline in inflation expectations. Abroad, US GDP declined in Q1, but consumer demand remained strong despite higher inflation. US durable goods orders picked up in March, but consumer confidence slipped in April. US house prices rose to a new record high in February, but pending home sales saw another decline in March.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 22 April 2022

    April 22, 2022

    In Australia, the RBA Board minutes brought no surprises, but the cash rate expectations picked up over the week. The PMIs rose further into expansion in April. ANZ consumer confidence rose but remained in pessimistic territory last week, while inflation expectations dropped but remained elevated. Offshore, Chinese GDP growth accelerated more than expected in Q1, but retail sales fell in March. Urban fixed asset investment rose faster than expected in March, though Chinese steel output was significantly lower than a year ago.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 14 April 2022

    April 14, 2022

    At home, the labour force survey showed unemployment was steady at 4.0% in March. NAB business conditions and confidence both improved in March but price pressures were the highest on record. Westpac consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level since September 2020. ANZ consumer inflation expectations have stabilised at an elevated level. Abroad, US CPI inflation rose to another 40-year high in March, while PPI inflation hit a new series record. The Chinese trade surplus was higher than expected, as imports fell amid COVID restrictions. Chinese PPI and CPI inflation were both higher than expected in March. The New Zealand and Canadian central banks each raised interest rates by 50 basis points.

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