Weekly Updates

In Australia, NAB business conditions weakened slightly in March, yet remain above the historical average, while business confidence improved but remains low. Westpac consumer sentiment deteriorated in April. The value of new home loans picked up in February, but the number of construction loans fell. Abroad, the US CPI and PPI reports for March confirmed that the disinflation process has stalled.

In Australia, RBA Board minutes showed that a cash rate hike was not considered at the March meeting. Dwelling approvals fell again in February, while the trade balance narrowed but remained solid. Abroad, the ISM reports for March suggested that US manufacturing rose back into expansion in March, while growth in services slowed. ADP employment rose more than expected in March.

In Australia, the monthly CPI indicator suggested that consumer price inflation was unchanged at 3.4% in February. Retail trade growth slowed in February, while private sector credit saw another broad-based increase. Job vacancies saw a big fall in the three months to February. Westpac consumer sentiment declined in March.

The RBA left interest rates unchanged this week, as expected, and moved closer to a neutral stance. The FOMC left the fed funds rate unchanged this week, but continued to signal cuts later this year and discussed a slowdown in quantitative tightening down the road. Data-wise, Aussie employment saw a supersized increase in February, while the unemployment rate declined back to a near 50-year low.

In Australia, the NAB business conditions index picked up in February, while business confidence remained below average. Payroll jobs saw a seasonal increase in the month to 17 February. Abroad, the US CPI and PPI figures for February again surprised to the upside, while the retail sales report disappointed.

In Australia, GDP growth was anaemic in Q4 and GDP per capita fell further. Dwelling approvals and new home loans both declined in January. The US ISM services PMI pointed to slower expansion and price growth in February, while the ADP reported moderate US payrolls growth. The Chinese PMIs suggested further soft growth in February,

The Aussie monthly CPI indicator suggested that headline consumer price inflation was unchanged in January, while retail trade increased less than expected. Private capex and construction work done picked up in Q4. US PCE inflation continued to decline towards its goal in January. The Chinese PMIs pointed to further anaemic expansion in February. The RBNZ has left its official cash rate unchanged.