Weekly Updates

In Australia, the monthly CPI indicator suggested that headline and trimmed mean inflation declined further in May and remained within the 2-3% target range. The S&P Global flash PMIs pointed to faster, albeit still quite moderate expansion of the Australian private sector in June. Abroad, S&P Global flash PMIs also pointed to ongoing expansion in the major advanced economies in June.

The Western Australian 2025-26 State Budget again confirmed the solid fiscal position of the State, with ongoing surpluses and debt kept in check. Nationwide, Australian seasonally adjusted employment unexpectedly ebbed in May, but the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%.

In Australia, NAB business conditions weakened in May, while business confidence picked up but remained subdued. Westpac consumer sentiment rose a little further in June but is still depressed. Abroad, US inflation figures generally surprised to the downside in May. The Chinese trade figures remained resilient to trade tensions in May, with iron ore imports still high by historical standards.

In Australia, real GDP growth disappointed in Q1, while the current account deficit narrowed amid a decline in the primary income deficit. This was followed by soft household spending growth and a fall in goods trade surplus in April. Home price growth accelerated in May, while the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge pointed to a decline in consumer price inflation in May.

In Australia, the monthly CPI indicator suggested that both headline and trimmed mean inflation remained in the RBA target range in April. Abroad, some of US tariffs were blocked by a US trade court, before being temporarily reinstated by an appeals court.

In Australia, the RBA cut the cash rate by 25bps to 3.85% as expected, and turned more dovish. The S&P Global PMIs suggested a slower pace of expansion in the private sector in May.