Weekly Market WATCh

  • Market WATCh Weekly 27 January 2023

    January 27, 2023

    In Australia, CPI inflation figures for Q4 and December surprised to the upside. NAB business conditions deteriorated markedly in December, while business confidence remained low. Flash Judo Bank PMIs pointed to the ongoing contraction in private sector business activity in January. Abroad, US GDP surprised to the upside in Q4. According to flash PMIs, US and UK private sector remained in contraction in January, while euro area and Japan saw an increase back into expansion territory.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 20 January 2023

    January 20, 2023

    In Australia, employment unexpectedly fell in December, while the unemployment rate remained at 3.5%. Westpac consumer confidence saw a significant gain in January, but remained depressed. Melbourne Institute inflation gauge signalled a decline in inflation in December. Offshore, US activity data for December were weaker than expected, while the annual rate of US PPI inflation saw a significant decline. Chinese Q4 GDP and December activity data surprised to the upside.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 13 January 2023

    January 13, 2023

    In Australia, dwelling approvals saw another big fall in November as did new home loans. Retail sales boomed in November, while CPI inflation picked up steam again. The external trade surplus widened in November. Job vacancies fell for the second quarter in a row in the three months to November but remained almost double the pre-COVID level.
    The US unemployment rate fell back to a post-1960s low in December, however wage inflation appears to be easing. US small businesses remained pessimistic in December and the ISM services PMI fell into contraction. December saw another decline in US inflation in December and Chinese inflation remained benign.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 6 January 2023

    January 6, 2023

    In Australia, the RBA Board meeting minutes from December showed that the Board considered a 50bps increase, 25bps increase or no change in the cash rate at the meeting before settling on 25bps. Private sector credit growth was steady in November. The CoreLogic home value index fell again in December, with the annual decline the biggest since 2008.
    Abroad, the Bank of Japan increased the cap on the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to 0.50% from 0.25%. The Chinese PMIs suggested business activity continued to contract in December. The US ISM manufacturing PMI pointed to an ongoing deterioration in manufacturing activity, however, the ADP employment report saw better-than-expected private payrolls growth in December.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 16 December 2022

    November 16, 2022

    In Australia, consumer confidence picked up in December, but remains depressed. Business conditions continued to be strong in November, however business is less confident about the outlook. Employment saw another big increase in November.
    Abroad, the FOMC raised US interest rates by a further 50bps in December and participants at the meeting revised up their expectations for rate hikes in 2023. The ECB and the Bank of England were among a number of other central banks that also hiked rates. Data-wise, Chinese economic data was weaker than expected in November, US inflation eased a little, retail sales and industrial production fell.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 9 December 2022

    December 9, 2022

    At home, the RBA has increased its policy interest rates by another 25bps, including the cash rate to 3.10%. Data-wise, real GDP rose 0.6% in Q3, while the current account balance turned negative. The trade surplus declined slightly in October. Melbourne Institute inflation gauge pointed to a renewed rise of inflation in November. Payroll jobs increased 0.7% and total wages fell 0.2% in the month to 12 November. Abroad, the US ISM services PMI rose further into expansion in November, while price pressures remained acute. Chinese external trade slumped in November, but iron ore imports rebounded. Chinese service sector activity fell at a faster pace in November, while PPI inflation was again negative and CPI inflation slowed further.

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