Weekly Market WATCh
July 31, 2020
Aussie weekly payrolls data suggests the employment recovery peaked in mid-June. The CPI fell by a record amount in Q2, building approvals sank to the lowest level since 2012 and private credit outstanding fell again in June.PDF Download PDF
Elsewhere, US durable goods orders rose in June, driven by higher automotive orders, the FOMC kept US monetary policy on hold, US GDP saw a record drop in Q2 and jobless claims increased. Euro area unemployment rose in June, while German GDP saw its biggest quarterly fall since WWII. The official Chinese PMI reports indicated that the economy continued to expand at a solid pace in July.
July 24, 2020
The Australian government announced it will extend the JobKeeper program until March 2021 and JobSeeker until December 2020, though with modifications and at reduced rates after September. The Commonwealth Treasurer revealed a Budget deficit of $85.8B for 2019-20 and a forecast deficit of $184.5B for 2020-21.PDF Download PDF
The ANZ consumer confidence index fell for the fourth week in a row last week and retail sales data showed the first signs of stockpiling toward the end of June. The RBA indicated accommodative monetary policy will continue as long as necessary, however, the Governor again pretty much ruled out the possibility of negative interest rates in Australia.
July 17, 2020
In Australia, business conditions and confidence saw further improvement in June. June labour force report printed a positive surprise in the employment figures, yet the ABS weekly payroll and wages report suggests that payrolls growth stalled in the second half of June. The COVID-19 outbreak in Victoria dragged consumer confidence lower in July. In China, the trade report for June showed an unexpected lift in exports. Q2 GDP growth was stronger than expected, industrial output improved in June led by near record steel production, however, retail sales and fixed asset investment remained soft. US industrial production picked up and retail sales rose to pre-COVID levels in June. Weekly jobless claims data showed jobless claims remain at recessionary levels. The ECB and BoJ kept policy settings unchanged.PDF Download PDF
July 10, 2020
The ANZ job ads saw a rebound in June, the Australian Industry Group services index suggests that conditions remained dismal in June, new home loans saw a record fall in May and the RBA kept its policy settings unchanged.PDF Download PDF
The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI saw the biggest increase on record in June, jobless claims suggest the US labour market improvement remains slow, while Chinese inflation data continues to be soft outside of food.
July 3, 2020
In Australia, weekly payrolls data suggests that jobs recovery slowed in the first half of June and private sector credit fell for the first time in almost nine years, dwelling approvals slumped and the trade surplus widened in May. The month of May also saw retail sales jump as the economy began to re-open. Overseas, the Chinese PMIs saw a further improvement in June. US nonfarm payrolls rose sharply in early June.PDF Download PDF
June 26, 2020
Domestically, the flash services PMI jumped back into expansion territory in June and the trade surplus widened in May as imports fall faster than exports. Consumer confidence is steady at a below average level and job vacancies are about half the level of a year ago. Outside of Australia, flash PMIs suggest that conditions remain bleak in Japan, while the European and US downturns continue to ease. The IMF downgraded its global growth forecast for 2020 from -3.0% to -4.9%. For Australia the 2020 forecast was upgraded to -4.5% from the April projection of a 6.7% decline.PDF Download PDF