Weekly Market WATCh

• Market WATCh Weekly 23 September 2022

  August 23, 2022

  At home, the RBA minutes brought no major surprises but a review of the RBA’s bond purchase program showed that the financial cost to the Bank could be up to A$58b over the period to 2033. The flash composite PMI pointed to further slight expansion of the Australian economy in September. Offshore, the FOMC increased the fed funds rate by another 75bps, as expected, and revised its interest rate projections upwards. There were also significant interest rate increases by several other G10 central banks, with the notable exception of the Bank of Japan; although Japanese authorities intervened in the market to support the yen.

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• Market WATCh Weekly 16 September 2022

  September 16, 2022

  In Australia, employment rose in August, while the unemployment rate ticked up to a still very low 3.5% amid a higher participation rate. The NAB report showed business conditions and confidence both improved in August, while the Westpac consumer sentiment index edged up after nine months of consecutive declines. Abroad, the US CPI inflation numbers were stronger than expected, with core inflation rising to 6.3% in August, while PPI inflation fell to the lowest level in a year. US retail sales unexpectedly rose in August, while industrial production saw a surprising fall. Chinese economic activity data improved in August, despite multiple headwinds.

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• Market WATCh Weekly 9 September 2022

  September 9, 2022

  The RBA has increased its policy interest rates by another 50bps, including the cash rate target to 2.35%. Aussie real GDP rose 0.9% in Q2, supported by strong performance of private consumption and exports. The surge in commodity prices saw a surge in the current account surplus and terms of trade in Q2, but the trade surplus narrowed in July. ANZ job ads resumed rising in August and the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge edged down but remained elevated. Payroll jobs fell 0.8% in the month to 13 August, while total wages were 1.9% lower (both unadjusted). Offshore, the ISM PMI report pointed to slight acceleration in services activity growth in the US. In China, the trade surplus narrowed in August, while the Caixin PMI signalled ongoing expansion in services.

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• Market WATCh Weekly 2 September 2022

  September 2, 2022

  In Australia, nominal retail sales saw another strong increase in July. Building approvals and new home loans both declined in July, while August saw the largest fall in house prices since 1983. Construction work done and private capex also fell in Q2. Abroad, the ADP employment report saw US private payrolls rise less than expected in August, while US job openings unexpectedly rose in July and remain double the number of officially unemployed. The US ISM manufacturing PMI pointed to further solid pace of expansion, with price pressures growing at the slowest pace since mid-2020. The official Chinese PMIs pointed to easing growth in services and a slower pace of contraction in manufacturing.

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• Market WATCh Weekly 26 August 2022

  August 26, 2022

  At home, the flash PMIs suggested private sector business activity slipped into contraction in August. Offshore, the only major advanced economy where business activity remained in expansion according to the flash PMIs was the UK. US new durable goods orders growth stagnated in July, but core orders saw another solid gain. US Q2 GDP fell less than first estimated. US initial jobless claims continued to decline last week.

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• Market WATCh Weekly 19 August 2022

  August 19, 2022

  In Australia, employment declined in July, while the unemployment rate dipped to a new monthly series low amid lower labour force participation. The annual growth rate of the wage price index accelerated to 2.6% in Q2. Consumer confidence improved last week, but inflation expectations continued to climb. Abroad, US industrial production resumed growth in July, while retail sales, ex fuel and autos, saw another solid increase. Chinese activity growth slowed in July amid fresh COVID-19 flare-ups.

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