Weekly Market WATCh

  • Market WATCh Weekly 30 July 2021

    July 30, 2021

    In Australia, the COVID-19 situation in New South Wales continued to deteriorate this week, prompting an extension of the Greater Sydney lockdown by another month. Victoria and South Australia lifted their respective lockdowns midweek. The escalating public health crisis in New South Wales saw consumer confidence drop again last week. Annual CPI inflation rose to 3.8% in Q2, reflecting the low statistical base from a year ago. Offshore, the Fed left its monetary policy settings unchanged, while US Q2 real GDP rose somewhat slower than expected.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 23 July 2021

    July 21, 2021

    In Australia, the Victorian lockdown was extended until 27 July and a seven-day lockdown was introduced in South Australia. The COVID-19 figures out of New South Wales continue to deteriorate. Lockdowns across multiple states saw retail trade fall in June. COVID-19 restrictions also drove a decline in payroll jobs at the turn of June and July. The flash composite PMI for July plunged back into contraction. The RBA minutes left the door open to the possibility that the Aussie central bank will not go ahead with the planned tapering of its bond purchases after the current program expires in September. Abroad, the ECB has announced that it will continue to buy financial assets at a faster pace than early in the year. US initial jobless claims rose to the highest level in two months.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 16 July 2021

    July 16, 2021

    In Australia, the Sydney lockdown was extended until at least 30 July and the Victorian government announced a five-day lockdown for the entire state. June saw another solid increase in Australian employment, which pushed the unemployment rate below 5% for the first time in a decade. Business confidence and conditions deteriorated in June, which was followed with an improvement in consumer confidence in July. US CPI inflation surged in June, supported by faster growth in prices for used cars and trucks. Chinese economic growth rates have normalised, with annual GDP growth no longer distorted by the low base in Q1 2020. Steel production fell but remains elevated. The Chinese trade balance has re-widened, while iron ore imports are still high by historical standards.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 9 July 2021

    July 9, 2021

    The RBA will trim the size of its weekly bond purchases from September and tweaked its cash rate forward guidance. The FOMC minutes were less hawkish than some expected. The ECB changed its inflation goal to 2% over the medium term. Data-wise, Australian retail trade rose more than first estimated in May, while dwelling approvals continued to fall. The AiG indices pointed to slower, but solid growth in construction and services in June. The ANZ job ads report increased again in June, while payroll jobs and wages rose in the two weeks to 19 June. Abroad, growth in Chinese services slowed down somewhat in June. In the US, the ISM services index pointed to a small deceleration in activity growth in June, while initial jobless claims saw an unexpected uptick last week.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 2 July 2021

    July 2, 2021

    Half of Australia’s capital cities, including Perth, were in lockdown this week after recording cases of COVID-19 community transmission. It was a positive week data-wise, however, with housing loans rising to a fresh all-time high in May, which was followed by further increase in home prices in June. The trade surplus widened in May, helped by record iron ore exports. In the US, the ADP employment report and ISM manufacturing PMI both missed expectations but continued to point to a strong recovery. The official Chinese PMIs pointed to somewhat slower economic growth, particularly in services.

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  • Market WATCh Weekly 25 June 2021

    June 25, 2021

    In Australia, after a significant rise in the number of new COVID-19 cases, a lockdown was announced for parts of Sydney, effective midnight tonight. The most recent lockdown in Victoria put a drag on the May retail sales figures as well as payrolls for the turn of May and June. The merchandise trade surplus rose to a fresh all-time high, helped by record iron ore exports. Offshore, after hawkish comments by some Fed officials, fed funds rate hike expectations have shifted to early 2023. The flash PMI reports pointed to ongoing solid expansion in activity in all the major advanced economies but Japan. The Bank of England left its monetary policy settings unchanged, as expected.

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