Retail Trade

Retail trade rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in August, slightly less than the 0.3% pencilled in by the consensus. The annual rate of retail sales growth declined to 1.5% in seasonally adjusted terms and 1.3% in trend terms, which is the slowest trend growth on record.

Retail trade rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in July, which was more than the 0.3% pencilled in by the market consensus. The ABS explained the stronger-than-expected result with additional spending, at least partly related to the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup.

Retail sales volumes fell a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in Q2, in line with the market expectations. The implicit retail sales deflator rose by 0.9%, faster than the 0.7% registered in the previous quarter.

Retail trade fell a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in June, which was a large disappointment to market participants who had expected no change. The drop in retail trade was partly a setback from the surprisingly strong increase of 0.8% in May, driven by earlier end of financial year sales and supersized sales related to Mother’s Day. Retail sales fell in all mainland states except for Western Australia.

Retail trade rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in May, which was a large upside surprise to the market participants who had expected just a 0.1% uptick. The upside surprise was mainly due to a 2.2% increase in ‘other retailing’ and a 1.4% pick-up in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food. The annual rate of growth continued to normalise, slowing to 4.2% from the upwardly revised 4.3% in April.

Retail trade was unchanged in April, which came against the market expectations of another 0.2% gain. The results were mixed across the industries. Western Australia again saw the strongest monthly gain (+1.0%) and recorded the second largest annual increase of all the states (+6.3%).

Retail sales volumes declined a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in Q1, more than the 0.4% expected by the markets. The implicit retail sales deflator rose by 0.6%, which is close to the series average.

Seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.4% in March, only slightly more than the 0.3% pencilled in by the consensus. The increases were confined to food-related industries, with households reducing spending on discretionary goods. While food-related industries appear to be faring relatively well in nominal terms, this likely in part reflects a rise in retail prices.

Retail sales ticked up by 0.2% in February, in line with the market expectations, taking the annual growth rate down to 6.4%, which is the lowest level since December 2021. Western Australia saw the strongest gains of 0.8% MoM and 8.8% YoY. The monthly retail sales figures are nominal, which means they reflect both changes in prices and volumes.

Seasonally adjusted retail sales jumped 1.9% in January (mkt exp 1.2%), following a revised 4.0% drop in December (originally -3.9%). The rebound in January maintained the increase in monthly sales volatility that began with a Black Friday sales-related increase of 1.7% in November. The annual growth rate edged up 0.1ppts to 7.5%.

Retail sales volumes ebbed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in Q4, less than the 0.5% fall expected by the markets. The implicit retail sales deflator rose by 1.1%, which was significantly less than the 2.1% registered in the previous two quarters.