View the most significant economic and financial market events from around the world and in Australia over the last week, including movements in interest rates, equities, currencies and commodities, as well as snapshots of global and domestic economies.
- 17 Mar 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 17 March 2023
The collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank has led to a re-assessment of the monetary policy outlook. The headline rates of US CPI and PPI inflation continued to fall in February, but remained elevated. Chinese economic data suggested a further recovery from the zero-COVID policy in February. Aussie employment surged to a fresh record high in February, while the unemployment rate fell back to 3.5%.
- 10 Mar 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 10 March 2023
At home, the RBA has increased its cash rate target by 25bps to 3.60%, as expected, but signalled a possible pause in tightening ahead. Offshore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a possible re-acceleration in the pace of tightening. ADP employment and JOLTS job openings pointed to the ongoing robustness of the US labour market, though initial jobless claims for last week rose more than expected.
- 03 Mar 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 3 March 2023
In Australia, Q4 GDP growth was slower than expected, while the GDP deflator pointed to the fastest price growth since 1988. The current account remained in surplus in Q4 for the 15th quarter in a row. Retail sales rebounded in January, while inflation slowed. Dwelling approvals plunged to a 10-year low, while the value of new home loans fell again in January.
- 24 Feb 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 24 February 2023
At home, wages growth slowed in quarterly terms in Q4, but the annual rate of growth was the highest since 2012. Construction work done fell in Q4, while private sector capex rose more than expected. According to the Judo Bank flash PMIs, the pace of contraction in Australian private sector activity eased in February.
- 17 Feb 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 17 February 2023
In Australia, employment saw a surprising fall in January, while the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%. The NAB business conditions and confidence indices both improved in January, but the Westpac consumer sentiment index plunged in February. In his public appearances this week, RBA Governor Philip Lowe continued to point to further RBA cash rate hikes.
- 10 Feb 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 10 February 2023
At home, the RBA increased their key interest rates by 25bps on Tuesday, taking the cash rate target to 3.35%. They also signalled more interest rate increases are to come. RBA’s 2023 underlying inflation projection was revised upwards and shows that inflation will still be around the upper bound of the 2-3% target band in mid-2025. Data-wise, Aussie retail sales volumes declined in Q4.
- 03 Feb 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 3 February 2023
Abroad, the FOMC lifted the fed funds rate target range by 25bps, which is a step down from previous increases. The ECB and Bank of England increased their respective policy rates by 50bps this week. Data-wise, US ISM manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in January, while growth in US ADP employment slowed. The quarterly growth rate in US employment cost index in Q4 was the slowest in a year.
- 27 Jan 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 27 January 2023
In Australia, CPI inflation figures for Q4 and December surprised to the upside. NAB business conditions deteriorated markedly in December, while business confidence remained low. Flash Judo Bank PMIs pointed to the ongoing contraction in private sector business activity in January. Abroad, US GDP surprised to the upside in Q4.
- 20 Jan 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 20 January 2023
In Australia, employment unexpectedly fell in December, while the unemployment rate remained at 3.5%. Westpac consumer confidence saw a significant gain in January, but remained depressed. Melbourne Institute inflation gauge signalled a decline in inflation in December.
- 13 Jan 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 13 January 2023
In Australia, dwelling approvals saw another big fall in November as did new home loans. Retail sales boomed in November, while CPI inflation picked up steam again. The external trade surplus widened in November. Job vacancies fell for the second quarter in a row in the three months to November but remained almost double the pre-COVID level.
- 06 Jan 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 6 January 2023
In Australia, the RBA Board meeting minutes from December showed that the Board considered a 50bps increase, 25bps increase or no change in the cash rate at the meeting before settling on 25bps. Private sector credit growth was steady in November. The CoreLogic home value index fell again in December, with the annual decline the biggest since 2008.
- 24 Mar 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 24 March 2023
The risk of broader contagion in the global financial markets has been averted for now, which allowed central banks in the advanced economies, including the Fed, to increase policy rates this week. The RBA Board minutes confirmed that a pause in tightening is being considered for April. The Judo Bank flash PMIs suggested that the Aussie private sector activity slid back into contraction in March.
Banner image top - Matagarup Bridge, Perth. Image courtesy of Tourism Western Australia.