Weekly Updates

In Australia, the Judo Bank flash PMIs pointed to near-stagnant growth in July, while the ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence index rose to the highest level since January but remained depressed. Abroad, US GDP growth accelerated more than expected in Q2. The S&P global flash PMIs pointed to expansion in services across the major advanced economies and contraction in manufacturing.

In Australia, employment rose more than expected in June, while the unemployment rate picked up to 4.1%, in line with market expectations. Abroad, US retail sales growth was flat in headline terms, but saw a solid gain in core terms. US industrial production growth exceeded expectations in June.

In Australia, new home loans saw a broad-based decline in May. NAB business conditions deteriorated further in June, but business confidence improved. Westpac consumer confidence dropped in July. Payroll jobs saw only a small uptick over the month to 15 June. Abroad, US CPI unexpectedly fell in June. Chinese trade surplus widened, as imports saw renewed decline while exports growth accelerated.

In Australia, RBA minutes confirmed that a hike was discussed in June meeting. Retail trade and dwelling approvals exceeded expectations in May, while trade surplus narrowed. The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge suggested that the annual rate of consumer price inflation could have picked up in June. ANZ-Indeed job ads fell further in June.

In Australia, the monthly CPI indicator suggested that annual consumer price inflation rose to 4.0% in May. Private sector credit growth remained steady in May. Westpac consumer confidence picked up in June, but remained depressed. Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations also rose in June, yet are well off their mid-2022 highs. Job vacancies declined between February and May.

In Australia, the RBA Board left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% this week, but a rate hike was discussed at the meeting. The Judo Bank flash PMI suggested business activity saw only a marginal increase in June. Abroad, US retail sales growth disappointed in May, but industrial production rose more than expected.