- 01 Mar 2024 Market WATCh Weekly 1 March 2024
The Aussie monthly CPI indicator suggested that headline consumer price inflation was unchanged in January, while retail trade increased less than expected. Private capex and construction work done picked up in Q4. US PCE inflation continued to decline towards its goal in January. The Chinese PMIs pointed to further anaemic expansion in February. The RBNZ has left its official cash rate unchanged.
- 23 Feb 2024 Market WATCh Weekly 23 February 2024
The RBA Board minutes confirmed that the case for a further cash rate increase was discussed at the meeting. The wage price index rose in line with market expectations in Q4 2023. Judo Bank PMIs suggested that the Aussie private sector moved back into expansion. FOMC minutes confirmed the wait-and-see monetary policy stance. S&P The People's Bank of China has cut the benchmark rate for mortgages.
- 16 Feb 2024 Market WATCh Weekly 16 February 2024
Aussie employment rose less than expected in January, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. NAB business conditions continued to normalise and business confidence, despite some improvement, remained below the long-run average. Westpac consumer sentiment rose sharply in February. Abroad, the US CPI for January surprised to the upside, while US retail sales saw its biggest fall in 10 months.
- 09 Feb 2024 Market WATCh Weekly 9 February 2024
The RBA kept interest rates unchanged and revised its inflation projections slightly downwards, but also made an attempt to push back pricing for near-term rate cuts. Aussie trade surplus narrowed slightly in December. The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge suggested further disinflation in January. The US ISM services PMI pointed to faster expansion and a marked acceleration in price growth.
- 02 Feb 2024 Market WATCh Weekly 2 February 2024
In Australia, CPI inflation declined more than expected in Q4 2023, but remained above the RBA target range. Retail sales dropped more than expected in December. House prices rose further in January. Abroad, the FOMC left the fed funds rate unchanged, as expected, and dropped the reference to tightening from the statement. The Chinese NBS composite PMI pointed to further stagnation in China.
- 25 Jan 2024 Market WATCh Weekly 25 January 2024
In Australia, NAB business conditions continue to ease, while the Judo Bank flash composite PMI remains in contraction. The Commonwealth Government announces tweaks to ‘Stage 3’ tax cuts. Abroad, the S&P Global flash PMIs point to expansion in services in most major advanced economies, but manufacturing remains in contraction or near stagnation. The annual rate of Kiwi inflation declines further.
- 19 Jan 2024 Market WATCh Weekly 19 January 2024
A slump in Aussie employment in December unwound almost all of November’s big gain. The unemployment rate was steady at 3.9%. The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge suggested a rebound in inflation, job ads were virtually unchanged, and the CBA estimated a big drop in household spending in December. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index fell in January.
- 12 Jan 2024 Market WATCh Weekly 12 January 2024
THIS WEEK’S HIGHLIGHTS
In Australia, retail spending was boosted by Black Friday sales, while dwelling approvals rose for the third time in four months. The monthly CPI indicator showed inflation continues to ease, job vacancies fell less than expected and new home loans increased in November.
Abroad, US non-farm payrolls rose more than expected and US CPI inflation was stronger than expected.
- 05 Jan 2024 Market WATCh Weekly 5 January 2024
In Australia, annual credit growth hit a fresh two-year low in November. Home prices continued to climb in December, led by Perth.
Abroad, the Chinese PMI reports were mixed, however the Caixin report suggested conditions are improving. In the US, the Fed’s favoured inflation indicator continued to ease, while labour market data pointed to ongoing robust conditions.
- 15 Dec 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 15 December 2023
Aussie employment saw another significant gain in November, but the unemployment rate picked up. NAB business conditions and confidence deteriorated in November, while Westpac consumer confidence improved. The FOMC left the fed funds rate unchanged, but revised its rate projections downwards. US disinflation continued to slow in November, while US retail sales saw an unexpected increase.
- 08 Dec 2023 Market WATCh Weekly 8 December 2023
In Australia, the RBA left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% and issued a more dovish statement. Aussie GDP rose less than expected in Q3, while the current account balance turned slightly negative in Q3. Offshore, US ADP employment rose less than expected in November, while ISM services report suggested faster expansion and slower price growth. The Chinese trade surplus widened in November.