CPI Inflation

The monthly CPI indicator rose by 6.8% over the year to February 2023, declining from the 7.4% recorded in the previous month. This was less than the 7.2% expected by the market participants. Compared to January, the level of the monthly CPI indicator rose by 0.2% in original terms and 0.6% in seasonally adjusted terms. This follows declines in the monthly rates of the CPI indicator in January.

The monthly CPI indicator rose 7.4% over the year to January 2023, declining from the 8.4% recorded in the final month of 2022. This was significantly less than the 8.0% expected by the market participants.

The headline CPI (unadjusted) rose by another 1.9% in Q4 2022, taking the annual inflation rate to 7.8% (the highest level since Q1 1990). The markets had expected that CPI had increased by 1.6% in the quarter and 7.5% through the year. The annual rate of trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s favourite inflation gauge, increased to 6.9%, which is a new series high (since Q3 2003).

The monthly CPI indicator rose 7.3% over the year to November 2022.

The monthly CPI indicator, a recently introduced measure of consumer price growth, rose by 6.9% over the year to October 2022. This followed a 7.3% YoY increase in September and Q3 as a whole. The decline in inflation was driven by a slower annual increase in prices for fruit and vegetables (9.4% versus 17.4% in September).

The headline CPI (unadjusted) rose by another 1.8% in Q3 2022, taking the annual inflation rate to 7.3% (the highest level since Q2 1990). This was more than the 1.6% and 7.0% expected by the markets, respectively. The ABS has also released its estimates of the monthly CPI indicator, which suggests that headline inflation rose to 7.3% in September.

The monthly CPI indicator rose by 6.8% over the year to August 2022, which followed a 7.0% YoY increase in July (the highest since Q2 1990). A 20.7% rise in the price of new dwellings purchased by owner-occupiers was the largest single contributor to the increase in the CPI over the year to August.

The headline CPI (unadjusted) rose 1.8% in Q2 2022, taking the annual inflation rate to 6.1% (the highest level since Q2 2001). Annual trimmed mean inflation, which is the RBA’s preferred inflation gauge, rose to a new record high of 4.9% (since Q2 2003). This is significantly higher than the upper bound of the RBA target range of 2-3%.

The headline CPI (unadjusted) rose 2.1% in Q1 2022, the most since the introduction of the goods and services tax in 2000. The Q1 increase took annual CPI inflation to 5.1%, another high in over two decades. Annual trimmed mean inflation, which is the RBA’s preferred inflation gauge, rose to 3.7%. This is significantly above than the RBA’s target band and the highest level since March 2009.

The headline CPI rose 1.3% in Q4 2021, taking annual inflation to 3.5% or back above the RBA’s target band. The Q4 increase in CPI exceeded market expectations of 1.0% QoQ and 3.2% YoY. The RBA’s preferred inflation gauge rose further, reaching the mid-point of the target band two years earlier than envisaged in the RBA’s most recent projection.