CPI Inflation

The monthly CPI indicator rose to 5.2% over the year to August 2023, 0.3ppts up from the 4.9% in the previous month and in line with the market expectations. The renewed rise in inflation was driven almost exclusively by transport amid a strong rebound in automotive fuel prices.

The monthly CPI indicator rose 4.9% over the year to July 2023, down from 5.4% in the previous month. This was a downside surprise to market participants, who expected a decline to 5.2%.

The headline CPI (unadjusted) rose 0.8% in Q2 2023, taking the annual rate of inflation 1.0ppt lower to 6.0%. The markets had expected CPI to increase by 1.0% in the quarter and 6.2% through the year.

The monthly CPI indicator rose by 5.6% over the year to May 2023, down from 6.8% in April. This was a downside surprise to the market participants, who expected a decline to 6.1%. The monthly CPI indicator was unchanged in May in seasonally adjusted terms.

The monthly CPI indicator rose by 6.8% over the year to April, up from 6.3% in the previous month. The April figures surprised to the upside, as the market participants expected annual CPI inflation to be steady at 6.3%. A significant contribution to the re-acceleration in annual growth in the CPI indicator in April came from the base effects from the impact of the fuel excise cut a year before.

The headline CPI (unadjusted) rose by 1.4% in Q1 2023, taking the annual rate of inflation 0.8ppts lower to 7.0%. The annual rate of trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s favourite inflation gauge, declined 0.2ppts to 6.6%, which is slightly less than the 6.7% envisaged by the market consensus. The monthly CPI indicator suggested that the CPI rose 0.6% in March, to be up 6.3% YoY.

The monthly CPI indicator rose by 6.8% over the year to February 2023, declining from the 7.4% recorded in the previous month. This was less than the 7.2% expected by the market participants. Compared to January, the level of the monthly CPI indicator rose by 0.2% in original terms and 0.6% in seasonally adjusted terms. This follows declines in the monthly rates of the CPI indicator in January.

The monthly CPI indicator rose 7.4% over the year to January 2023, declining from the 8.4% recorded in the final month of 2022. This was significantly less than the 8.0% expected by the market participants.

The headline CPI (unadjusted) rose by another 1.9% in Q4 2022, taking the annual inflation rate to 7.8% (the highest level since Q1 1990). The markets had expected that CPI had increased by 1.6% in the quarter and 7.5% through the year. The annual rate of trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s favourite inflation gauge, increased to 6.9%, which is a new series high (since Q3 2003).

The monthly CPI indicator rose 7.3% over the year to November 2022.