Weekly Updates

In Australia, RBA minutes confirmed that the July decision not to cut the cash rate target was about the timing, not direction. However, during her speech at the Anika Foundation, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that a rate cut in August is not warranted.

In Australia, employment growth was virtually flat for the second month in a row in July, while the unemployment rate climbed to a 3.5-year high. Westpac consumer sentiment improved in July, despite no cut from the RBA, while Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations declined a little.

In Australia, the RBA unexpectedly kept its cash rate target unchanged at 3.85% this week, advising it would like to receive more information to confirm that underlying inflation is coming back to the mid-point of the target range. Data-wise, NAB business conditions and confidence improved markedly in June, following weakness in the previous month.

In Australia, growth in retail trade and dwelling approvals disappointed in May. The goods trade surplus narrowed in May, dragged down by both lower exports and higher imports. The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge suggested that consumer price inflation remained in check in June. The Cotality home value index saw solid gains across most capital cities in June.

In Australia, the monthly CPI indicator suggested that headline and trimmed mean inflation declined further in May and remained within the 2-3% target range. The S&P Global flash PMIs pointed to faster, albeit still quite moderate expansion of the Australian private sector in June. Abroad, S&P Global flash PMIs also pointed to ongoing expansion in the major advanced economies in June.

The Western Australian 2025-26 State Budget again confirmed the solid fiscal position of the State, with ongoing surpluses and debt kept in check. Nationwide, Australian seasonally adjusted employment unexpectedly ebbed in May, but the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%.