Employment

Seasonally adjusted employment ticked up by only 2.0k in June, significantly less than the 20.0k expected by market participants. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by 0.2ppts to a 3.5-year high of 4.3%. A 25bps cash rate cut remains almost fully priced in for August, but 64bps of cuts are now expected in the second half of 2025, compared to 56bps before the release.

Employment declined a seasonally adjusted 2.5k in May, against the market expectations of a 21.2k gain. This followed an outsized increase of 87.6k in April (revised slightly down from 89.0k).

Employment saw a strong 89.0k increase in April, significantly more than the 22.5k expected by market participants. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations. We continue to expect the RBA to cut the cash rate by 25bps next week, despite today’s strong employment numbers and the upside surprise to wages growth yesterday.

Seasonally adjusted employment rose a seasonally adjusted 32.2k in March, following a drop in February caused by more people retiring than usual. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate picked up to 4.1% from a downwardly revised 4.0% in the previous month.

Seasonally adjusted employment saw an unexpected drop of 52.8k in February, as fewer workers from senior age cohorts returning to work than in the previous year. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was steady at 4.1%, in line with market expectations.

Employment saw another solid gain of 44.0k in seasonally adjusted terms in January, following an upwardly revised increase of 60.0k in the previous month. The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1ppts to 4.1% in seasonally adjusted terms, but was unchanged at 4.0% in trend terms.